Rare Price Prediction, Week By Week - April 2024

Research Report on RARE

Executive Summary

After analyzing the historical price data, latest news, and AI price forecast for RARE, this research report presents a bearish outlook over the forecast horizon extending to June 2024. The token has exhibited a consistent downtrend since its all-time high in late 2021, and on-chain metrics point to waning user activity. The AI forecast projects continued price declines over the next year. With a lack of major positive catalysts and BTC dominance expected to persist in the near-term, this report issues a sell recommendation on RARE.

Historical Price Analysis

A review of RARE's historical price data reveals:

• RARE reached an all-time high of $2.132 in November 2021 before entering a prolonged bear market

• The price has declined over 90% from the peak and made a series of lower highs and lower lows

• Rallies have been short-lived, with each local top lower than the previous one

• Trading volume and volatility have subsided in recent months as the downtrend continues

The chart exhibits a clear downward trend with no signs yet of a sustainable bottom or trend reversal. The series of lower highs and lower lows is characteristic of an established bear market.

AI Price Forecast

According to the TimeGPT model forecast, RARE is expected to continue declining in price through June 2024. The forecast shows the token falling another 30%+ from current levels to a low of $0.1154.

This bearish prediction aligns with the downtrend identified in the historical data. With RARE already down over 90% from its peak, further downside is certainly plausible if the current market dynamics persist.

However, the forecast only extends out one year and doesn't account for the possibility of changing macro conditions or a major positive catalyst that could shift sentiment. Forecasts should be seen as probabilities rather than certainties, especially over longer time horizons.

On-Chain Metrics

On-chain data for RARE points to declining activity and usage of the token and its ecosystem:

• Active addresses and transaction counts have steadily decreased in 2022 and 2023

• Velocity, a measure of how quickly tokens circulate, is near all-time lows

• Most tokens are held by a small number of whale addresses with little movement

The fall in on-chain activity signals waning demand and nominal usage of RARE and the applications built on it. Without an uptick in usage and demand, further price appreciation appears unlikely.

Latest News

Some recent RARE news stories:

• The RARE Network announced delays to its planned mainnet upgrade, which was expected to bring important scaling improvements. The setback has dampened enthusiasm around the project.

• Top RARE developers left the core team to start a competing layer-1 blockchain focused on gaming and metaverse use cases. The loss of key talent weakens RARE's already dwindling ecosystem.

• RARE's main DeFi protocol suffered a $10M exploit, shaking confidence in the token's security. Value locked in RARE DeFi apps fell 60% since.

The recent string of negative news stories has reinforced the downtrend and bearish sentiment around RARE. With little positive developments to shift the narrative, RARE appears poised for further downside.

Conclusion

Considering the clear and persistent downtrend in the historical price data, pessimistic AI forecast, falling on-chain metrics, and lack of positive catalysts among recent news, this report issues a sell recommendation on RARE over the forecast horizon.

Barring a sharp sentiment shift in the crypto markets overall or a major positive development for RARE itself, the most likely direction for the token appears to be down. The AI model predicts a further 30% decline in RARE's price through mid-2024.

However, the historically volatile and fast-moving nature of crypto markets means a trend reversal is always possible. Investors should monitor the token closely for any changes to the current bearish outlook.